Theranos のニュースの雑感

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Theranos という会社が話題になってます。シリコンバレーのスタートアップで、スタンフォード大学をドロップアウトした 30 代前半の女性が CEO、少量の血液の分析を迅速に行うコア技術を持っていて、医療費の高騰に苦しむアメリカだけでなく、グローバルヘルスの救世主になるという触れ込みで、数年前からアメリカのメディアに頻繁に出ていました。最近の記事によると、既に $400 M / 500 億円の投資を受けて、$9 B / 1.1 兆円の 評価額になっているそうです。最近は日本語のメディアでも紹介されていましたので、知ってる人も多いかもしれません。

目立つスタートアップだなーと思っていましたが、10/15 の WSJ で Theranos の技術的な信頼性についての疑惑が記事になり、それ以降アメリカのメディアなどでの報道が続いています。日本語で言う「祭り」みたいな感じなのですが、この祭りがいろんなことを考えるきっかけになったので、雑感をいくつか書きます。

ところで、何でこの会社をたまたま自分が知っているかというと、自分はこの会社が持っていると主張する技術（microfluidics による血液検査）について、研究分野として興味を持っているからです。この事件以前も、新聞記事などがあればできるだけ読むようにしていましたが、一般的なお金やスタートアップの話などに詳しいわけではありません。何か勘違いしてたら教えてください。

１．「投資」は存在しないものに対して行われ、それは研究費をもらうのに似てる

実は少し前まで、私はモノを売るということは「モノが既に存在して、それに値段が付く」ものだと思っていました。最近遅まきながら（遅い！）世の中はそれだけじゃないなーと思うようになりました。というのも、今の仕事で「これまでにないこんなことを成し遂げるから、研究費下さい」ということを繰り返しているのですが、これがある意味「実体が存在しないものに金を出す」ということだからです。

研究の場合は資金提供者へ金銭的なリターンはありませんが、ビジネスでは「これまでにないこんなモノを作って、それを売って儲かった利益を分配するので、投資して下さい」となるのだと思います。この会社はそれを繰り返して合計 500 億円の投資を得たようですが、実際に公表しているモノが存在していない疑惑が出た、というのが今回の報道です。自社技術ではなくて、他社技術を使ったなども報道されています。

ところで（これが本題ですが）研究費を取ってくるのと投資してもらうのは、上記のように共通する考えや方法論がありそうです。私はまだまだ失敗しつつ方法を学んでいる段階ですが、大学教員で成功してる人で、どちらも上手にやってる先生も何人か思い浮かびます。どちらも「この人なら上手くやれる」と思わせるのが大事だと思うのですが、そう思わせる要素が何かを考えながら、申請書を作ろうかと思います。

２．「投資」を判断する側も難しそう、何によって判断してるのだろう

これは文字通りですが、500 億円も集まるような規模の会社で、どうして今さらこんなスキャンダルになるのか驚きです。いったい会社のどのような要素を判断されて、500 億円のお金が付いたんでしょうか。ヘルスケアというマーケットの規模が大きいから？アメリカの投資家はスゴいと言われますが、もしこのケースが黒ならば、かなり判断がいい加減ってことはないんでしょうか。あるいはこの程度の額の損失は大したことない世界なんでしょうか？

技術的なことだけ言うなら、VC の中の人が特定分野での PhD を持っていようが、小さなチームで数百種のバイオマーカー検出の有効性を判断するのは難しそうな印象も持っています。論文のレベルでは病気を示す特定のバイオマーカーの検出について、以前の X 倍の sensitivity です、みたいな話は、おそらく毎日のように出ています。それぞれによってデバイスのデザインも違いそうです。

おそらく一定額の投資を集めた会社の信頼度が上がり、雪だるま式に大きくなることもあるのでしょう。いわゆる、研究費を取った実績があると、次の研究費が取りやすい、というのに似てます。賞を取った実績があると、次の賞が取りやすい、でも同じでしょうか。「判断」を自分だけの判断で下すのは難しいことだと思います。結局何が投資の判断材料になるんでしょう。これも自分の仕事のヒントになるかもしれませんし、何にしても 500 億集めたというのは驚きで、100 分の 1 でも欲しいですね。

３．情報が伝わるのはあまり速くない

今回 WSJ の記事が出てから、日本語でいつ記事になるんだろうと思って眺めています。これって結構大ニュースだと思うのですが、今回のスキャンダルに触れたインターネット上での日本語記事はまだないようです。自分はたまたま分野の近い人が話題にしていたので本ニュースを知りました。ただこの話自体は、国内外でスタートアップの仕事をしている日本人の友人も SNS でシェアするなどして、詳しいことを知っているはずです。そういう人にインタビューすれば情報だって得られるし、規模も大きくてニュース性もあると思うのですが、実際に記事になるのは時間がかかるのかな、と思いました。

あとこの手の話は、まとめサイト、キュレーション、バズる[ref]ドラクエ 2 のバズズを思い出しますね。アトラス・バズズ・ベリアルです。[/ref]みたいな経路でも広がりそうだと思うのですが、そういうとこに出る頃には時間が経って情報が周回遅れになってて、さらに言語の壁があると３周遅れだと思いました。インターネットは情報伝達が速いと言いますが、ネットに頼らずに実際に興味を持ってる人と話す方が（あるいは自分が興味を持つ方が）、よほど情報に早く辿り着けます。そもそも伝達の速さもいろんなことに影響されて、そんなに速くはないのかもしれません。

４．メディアが性別を話題するときの話

昨年の STAP 細胞の捏造の件で、日本の女性研究者が注目されて、賞賛されて、叩かれた一連の流れを覚えている人も多いと思います。その際には女性であることがメディアに強調されて、褒められるときも叩かれるときも「燃料」として使われたように思いました。今のところ（と言っても最初の報道から 3 日ですが）は、アメリカのメディアでは女性 CEO であることを特に話題にしておらず、落ち着いた記事しかないようです。まだ疑惑の段階でもあるので、技術的なことや事実関係を、客観的に淡々と書いてるようです。

私見ですが、これまで Theranos は CEO が若い女性であることを前面に出していると思いました。アメリカ初の 30 歳以下の女性ビリオネラ（10 億ドル以上の資産を持つ人）ということが何度も紹介されていますし、会社も女性の STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics) 教育のサポートを前面に押し出したり、ロールモデルとしての描かれ方も少なくなかったように思います。現在も HP には「ガラスの天井の下には、強い女性がいる」というフレーズが載っています。そのような広報が会社の認知にもつながり、共感を呼び、広く投資につながるのでしょうから、戦略的なのだと思います。そして、そういうパブリックイメージの作り方自体は昨年の STAP 細胞のケースと似てるかなあと思いました。

日本でのケースが記憶に新しいですが、このようなスキャンダルがあったときの危機管理とか、報道する側の姿勢の違いについては、見てみると面白いかもしれません。

—

以上、ざっと思ったことでした。中の人とかいたら、いろいろ教えてください！

67 thoughts on “Theranos のニュースの雑感”

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